Are leaders ‘in over their heads’ in this increasingly complex world?
It is common knowledge that most organisations currently have to deal high levels of complexity and uncertainty due to the unprecedented economic, technical, political, environmental and social change and volatility people are experiencing around the world. To survive and succeed organisations need greater agility which requires leaders, throughout all levels, to become more engaged in strategic thinking. Do organisations have sufficient leaders with the capacity to succeed in this new world or are many leaders now literally ‘in over their heads’?
As nature of work becomes more complex, uncertain and ambiguous, successful strategic thinking depends on: -
- Suspending the need for detail and tuning into the dynamic patterns of the situation
- Focusing less on the pragmatic and being more open to the possible
- Being less concerned with short term solutions and having a greater awareness of long term implications
- Having less reliance on structure and a greater comfort with chaos
Unfortunately, when faced with complexity and uncertainty most leaders have a natural tendency to: -
- Analyse the details
- Draw on their knowledge and experience of what has worked in the past
- Focus on gaining quick wins
- Install systems and procedures to ensure predictability
To be successful in this complex and uncertain world it is important organisations: -
- Identify the leaders who have the most potential to succeed
- Help leaders transcend their constraints and realise their full potential
- Provide opportunities for leaders to accelerate the increase in their cognitive capacity
Identifying Potential through Cognitive Agility
Dr Elliot Jaques, through his research, published in ‘Requisite Organisation’ by E. Jaques (1988), found that people who deal well with uncertain and complex work can process conceptual and abstract information in parallel, converge at a conclusion and were able to deal with differing shades of grey. This differentiated them from people who do not cope well and who tend to process more concrete information in serial, seeing things as black and white. From this work Jaques created the ‘Stratified Systems Theory’. This framework aligns the levels of uncertainty and complexity in the work place with the type of cognitive processing that is required for success. The Cognitive Process Profile is frequently used identify and measure leaders’ current and potential capacity to deal with uncertainty and complexity by drawing on ‘Stratified Systems Theory’.
Transcending Constraints
Whilst many leaders have the potential to deal with higher levels of complexity and uncertainty they are not realising this potential because they are constraining themselves. These constraints are often seen in three areas: -
Cognitive Habits
Throughout their education and early career many leaders have been recognised and rewarded for employing their ‘crystallised intelligence’. This is often measured by IQ tests and which draws on peoples past knowledge and experience. To exercise good judgement in today’s complex and uncertain world requires a high level of ‘fluid intelligence’. This type of intelligence draws on peoples’ capacity to think logically and solve problems in novel situations, independent of acquired knowledge. Leaders constrain their capacity for dealing with complexity and uncertainty when they overuse their ‘crystallised intelligence’.
Emotional Reactions
With leaders who have a relatively high fear of failure, the challenge of increased uncertainty and complexity can lead them to lose trust in their own intuition and judgement and employ a number of survival strategies. These strategies can include overusing investigation, analysis, memory, and structure. When these strategies, tried and tested in the past, do not work leaders often resort to trial and error. It is their emotional reaction that constrains leaders and they are not able to access and employ their full cognitive potential.
Metacognition
Metacognition has been defined as ‘thinking about thinking’ and includes knowing when and how to use particular strategies for learning or for problem solving. A high level of metacognitive skill enables a leader to manage their emotional reaction to uncertainty and complexity and appropriately employ their fluid intelligence. Meta-cognition also underpins the success of all other cognitive skills necessary for success in leading a business in a complex world such as; spotting trends, systems thinking, identifying relationships, creativity and learning new ways of working.
A leader’s cognitive processing, emotional reaction to uncertainty and complexity, and level of metacogntion are all measured and profiled by the Cognitive Process Profile. This tool enables leaders to become aware of and transcend their constraints so as to realise their potential.
Increasing Capacity
The Cognitive Profile Process identifies the ‘potential capacity’ the leader could currently access if they were able to overcome their constraints. The tool does not take into account how this capacity could increase if the leader was to follow a developmental path. The Seattle Longitude Study (Schaie, 1996) examined the cognitive abilities of 500 individuals at seven year intervals from their early 20s to old age. The research found that for men many of their cognitive abilities peaked in their early 50s while for women the peak was their early 60s. This finding has been mirrored by brain scanning research that has found that people continue to grow ‘white matter’ (insulated connections between the brain cells) through to middle age. However, the rate of growth and strength of the white matter depends on how the brain is used. Whilst partly determined by genetic blueprint the white matter thickens and becomes more efficient with deliberate use. What appears to stimulate the growth in white matter and the increase in our cognitive capacity is being exposed to challenges where our existing way of viewing and making sense of the world does not provide a solution. Instead the solution comes from making new connections and forming a new view. Therefore, the development of a leader in terms of increasing their cognitive capacity for dealing with complexity and uncertainty can be accelerated through exposing them to the right challenges at the right time. Through reviewing all the available research we have created the ‘leadership Capacity Framework’ to guide leaders along their development path ensuring that they get the right type of preparation, challenge and support at the right time.
“No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein
By Terry Sexton, founder of Creative Edge Consulting Ltd
